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#7511900 - 01/22/14 04:47 PM wutdat real estate do?
4age Offline
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A lot of doom and gloom with condos, but housing continues to be hot in the right areas.

http://www.thestar.com/business/real_est...ove_asking.html

"A renovated semi-detached house in Toronto’s hot Junction Triangle area has gone for almost $210,000 over asking price in a bidding war frenzy fuelled by more than 32 desperate househunters and a property that many believe was deliberately underpriced.
The Perth Ave. home, which was listed for $639,900 — area realtors say that’s at least $100,000 under its real market value — attracted more than 400 buyers to a weekend open house.
It sold Tuesday night to a couple, two hours after the 7 p.m. close of offers, for an astounding $848,625 with 32 firm bids and another six or eight that were withdrawn at the last minute.
But even bigger than the sales price is the massive buzz in the industry."
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#7511914 - 01/22/14 04:56 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: 4age]
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No show of a slowdown here either, in fact more and more houses are being listed since people are getting their asking prices. Every other one to go up is 40k more It's all the old people too moving out \:\(
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#7511916 - 01/22/14 04:57 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
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Also RBC just lowered their rates too.
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#7511987 - 01/22/14 05:32 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
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 Originally Posted By: Яeesky Beeznuss
Also RBC just lowered their rates too.


so did td and bmo as well.. quietly...

however, this post in OT made me a wee bit depressed.

http://forums.clubsi.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/7511496/fpart/1

I wish I could be as quick to pay it off in 8 years.
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#7512056 - 01/22/14 06:07 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: c2k]
robbbby Offline
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I think I have ~6 years left lol windsor housing problems.
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#7512065 - 01/22/14 06:10 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: c2k]
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 Originally Posted By: c2k
 Originally Posted By: Яeesky Beeznuss
Also RBC just lowered their rates too.


so did td and bmo as well.. quietly...

however, this post in OT made me a wee bit depressed.

http://forums.clubsi.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/7511496/fpart/1

I wish I could be as quick to pay it off in 8 years.


Just make more money /csi

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#7512090 - 01/22/14 06:21 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
Hatorade Offline
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 Originally Posted By: Яeesky Beeznuss
Also RBC just lowered their rates too.


My renewal is coming up and we are offered 2yr locked at 2.29% I don't see anything on RFD coming close to that...boo I thought I was going to get it even cheaper.
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#7512117 - 01/22/14 06:40 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Hatorade]
Euphoricuck Offline
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"lowered" rates. lol 1/10th of 1 percent.

If you read the other thread on this, youll see mentioned the middle is fueled by froth and virgins jumping in because omg rates might go up.
they are going up, they already said they will.

low end ,condos and over 1 mil are hurting. middle is still full of retards. if you think there wont be a dip and buy into the crea bs hyped up numbers with most media reporting this crap. well you will be in for a rude awakenings.
if you are thinking 20 yrs down the road then it doesnt matter much what happens in the next 2-10 yrs.

and it all means nothing unless you plan to sell. Thinking your home will keep appreciating like this until retirement is ridiculous. If its your only investment vehicle. G. N . S . P.

if its only a small portion than who gives a fuck.

cn: we already have a thread on dis

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#7512125 - 01/22/14 06:45 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Euphoricuck Offline
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read the comments. there are people with way too much time on their hands that track this shit.
Lots of false reporting and hype. For properties like above which tractor beam the idiots in , there are others than dont.


Warning, Spoiler:

http://i.imgur.com/vK6bAW4.jpg
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#7512139 - 01/22/14 06:54 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Euphoricuck Offline
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 Quote:
I hope this isn't a young couple. If a crash happens, all price increases will be wiped out going back a few years. I bought in 1990 at the beginning of the crash and paid a peak price. Interest rates went sky high, and I sold fourteen years later for $14000 more than I bought it for. The youngsters have never seen a crashing market and seem blind to the possibility. Remember, what goes up, eventually comes down, even just a little bit.


dont think we are immune to something like this.
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#7512157 - 01/22/14 07:00 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
spd-dmn Offline
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hey wheres that heatmap from?

is there one for the gta, not just toronto?

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#7512170 - 01/22/14 07:10 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: spd-dmn]
Euphoricuck Offline
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some guy runs some blog. Ive seen it before and hes obviously trolling most real estate articles.

Dude has way too much time on his hands but the data he has is pretty impressive. Lots of fibbing by real estate agents/crea etc. properties listed at an original price. doesnt sell. Then re listed. sells a bit over asking and they froth how it got more than asking..ya on the re listed price.

this guy keeps track of that. I dont think he does more than toronto.


I think its this

http://recharts.blogspot.ca/

used to be open for anyone but need an invite now or something (gheeeeeeeeeeeeey)
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#7512328 - 01/22/14 08:21 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Screamin Type ARGH! Offline
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our renewal is due soon as well, rbc as 120 day rate lock in and you can start that day, which is nice. tho the 'lowered' rate mentioned above i think is only for fixed. we're going to variable for 5yrs...tho im thinking rates "SHOULD" start going back up in 2-3 but who the fuck knows. dumping as much cash to principle as i can before renewal...dem lowered monthly payments doe!
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#7512345 - 01/22/14 08:29 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
Simon_the_Pieman Offline
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my renewal is up in march.
yay.
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#7512499 - 01/22/14 11:03 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
Happy Birthday civic13 Offline
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Wish I could get a decent place for under 200k \:\(
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#7512529 - 01/22/14 11:36 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: civic13]
Euphoricuck Offline
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-yAi98Gyqg
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#7512545 - 01/22/14 11:57 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: civic13]
iamfob Offline
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 Originally Posted By: civic13
Wish I could get a decent place for under 200k \:\(



Windsor or Barrie!
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#7512583 - 01/23/14 12:55 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: iamfob]
Happy Birthday civic13 Offline
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 Originally Posted By: iamfob
 Originally Posted By: civic13
Wish I could get a decent place for under 200k \:\(



Windsor or Barrie!

In the GTA ;\)

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#7512621 - 01/23/14 04:41 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: civic13]
zaius Offline
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i've been checking condo listings and it seems that everyone has jacked up their asking prices by over $40K since last year (downtown core, 1+1 650sqft condos)
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#7512742 - 01/23/14 08:06 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: zaius]
Euphoricuck Offline
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a decent place in barrie for under 200k?not gonna happen
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#7512757 - 01/23/14 08:12 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Screamin Type ARGH! Offline
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bratislava, maybe.
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#7512798 - 01/23/14 08:28 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
Euphoricuck Offline
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Registered: 11/05/03
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 Quote:
An industry site, MortgageBroker News, broke the story this week that the bank has changed the fine print in its contracts for conventional (no CMHC insurance) variable-rate mortgages – the kind where your interest charge rises each time the central bank causes primes to move. But it’s not rising rates the bank is worried about, rather falling real estate values.

Here’s the change: If, at any time or for any reason, the value of your house drops to a level which results in your mortgage exceeding 80% of it, the bank can demand you write a cheque to cover the difference. If you don’t, your mortgage goes into default. You also have the right to have your property appraised (at your cost) to prove it’s worth at least 80% of the loaned amount, whenever the bank demands such proof.

The old limit was 75%, and the former wording also limited the nightmare scenario to situations in which rising interest rates triggered the action. This time anything – like unemployment triggering a highly local market decline – means you have a problem.

Says one mortgage broker: “Property value decreases would have a huge impact on all TD variable rate mortgages.”

Says realtor Dan: “I think it’s preparation in the event of a price melt down and they want a 20 % cushion instead 25% to minimize the bank’s exposure to non CMHC mortgages.” Exactly. The bank is preparing its non-insured portfolio against what might be inevitable, if the Bank of Canada is correct. It’s only prudent, if you’re the lender. It’s a potential hell on wheels, if you’re the borrower.

For example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 condo in 2012 with the help of a $75,000 loan from your suffocatingly helpful helicopter parents, then took a $320,000 VRM from the boys at TD. The economy continues to wobble, interest rates don’t change, you’re not selling or moving, but units similar to yours start changing hands for $300,000.

If you’re a bank client, expect a letter like this:

It has come to our attention that the outstanding Principal Amount (including Deferred Interest) of your mortgage now exceeds 80% of the fair market value of the Mortgaged Property as determined by us (with or without an appraisal/valuation), (such amount being the Trigger Point), therefore we give you notice of this excess (the Trigger Point Excess) and within 30 days of the date of this letter you must do one of the following:
(i) make a lump sum payment to us at least equal to the amount of the Trigger Point Excess; or
(ii) satisfy us that the outstanding Principal Amount (including any Deferred Interest) does not exceed 80% of the fair market value of the Mortgaged Property as established by a qualified real estate appraiser, approved in writing by us, but at your expense.

There are many people who thought this day would never come. Now you know.
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#7512809 - 01/23/14 08:30 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
LNXGUY Moderator Offline
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Registered: 08/06/00
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Loc: Barrie, Ont,
 Originally Posted By: Euphoric
a decent place in barrie for under 200k?not gonna happen


Pretty much.
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#7512819 - 01/23/14 08:34 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Happy Birthday Risky Business Offline
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Pretty much all nay sayers and contrarians to the real estate market have been wrong for 5+ years. Trying to analyze this market fundamentally is a waste of time, so many unknown driving factors, tons of irrational buyers, etc.

One thing seems to be happening like i've been saying forever is the condo market is starting to take a beating. Detached homes under 700-800 will probably always be the safest bet when it comes to personal real estate. Whether or not they will stay the same, appreciate/depreciate, who cares, doubt it will be anything significant.

If money was no object, 99.99% of the population wants to live in single family detached homes, this is a fact, except for the small minority who like condos for the maintenance/carefree living that it provides.

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#7512836 - 01/23/14 08:40 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
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IMO, the GTA will never really see much of a "correction" it's a global city, desire to live here isn't just local, it's also global, and we are a natural resource based economy. The only thing that could potenetially undermine the real estate market here is a fundamental shift in demand for our resources, which is unlikely, but there is a movement worldwide for a reduction in demand and alternative methods. That's pretty much my only fear long term, not saying we will become a detroit ghost town, but that's just about the only thing that can really cripple this place. Otherwise, we are just another smaller/sh!ttier NYC that's not going anywhere.
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#7512866 - 01/23/14 08:50 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
spd-dmn Offline
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would you say there's no substance to the theories that a lot of homeowners are overextended and unprepared for rate hikes?

do you see any scenario in the next 2-3 years that would cause a "correction" even to sub-700 detached?

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#7512886 - 01/23/14 08:58 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: spd-dmn]
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Define a lot?

Thousands? Sure, is that a lot in a pool of hundreds of thousands of home owners? No.

I've yet to see an article that's not biased towards either side (bubble vs. healthy). All fundamentals based on income vs. price, price vs. rent show a bubble...yet we've entered a new era of real estate where this seems to be the norm based on significant demographic changes that the GTA has gone through. It's not like this has happened before to this extent. We've also diversified as a financial hub in North America, so not only do we have natural resources, but we've also organically grown other sectors of our economy. Take all of that into account and maybe that's why the *bubble* isn't popping.

Interest rates aren't going up, not any time soon, that's for sure. I was confident when I went with variable in 2011 I'd come way ahead compared to a fixed rate, and just on this term alone I am saving over 20k just based on that. They can't afford to raise the rates, and even if they do not that many people will be affected unless we see interest rates in the double digits (if that was to happen, then the whole world would be going to sh!t at that point).

People get approved on higher rates, a lot are over extended (first time homebuyers) and those buying 700k-800k homes generally aren't first home buyers and have more than 20% equity in their homes.


What will happen, I don't know, but I wouldn't sit around waiting for an apocalypse.

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#7512900 - 01/23/14 09:05 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: spd-dmn]
Euphoricuck Offline
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 Quote:
fundamental shift in demand for our resources

how would you define a fundamental shift? things are already changing in that area.

I totally agree trying to predict it is somewhat silly because froth and hype do crazy things to people. But the condos and 1 mil plus are already hurting. Thats a given.

So that leaves the frothy middle teetering... where are prices to go? Keep climbing past 1 mil? run all the way to 1 mil and stop? People are buying in because they dont want to "miss out" and/or see it as an investment.

1 mil is a ceiling which would stop all these folks in their tracks from buying above that point.(no cmhc). What happens when people lose faith in prices appreciating?


and jobs are being slashed left and right. That will definitely be a factor moving forward.
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#7512917 - 01/23/14 09:13 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Happy Birthday Risky Business Offline
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The first world populous is becoming a version of a very self aware hippy ('murica excluded). Consumerism is past its peak, at least in the educated parts and there is a shift to living more with less, less waste, less energy use, less environmental footprint. They are teaching this stuff is schools now to 5 years olds y0. Natural resources will always be in demand, but a significant reduction in demand could put downward pressure on Canada as a nation (particularly the west) and that could be the fundamental shift that could take the steam out of our economy. This is long term sh!t, like 10-20 years from now when people change their entire view on life and what works/doesn't work in our current day and age.
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#7512949 - 01/23/14 09:28 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
Euphoricuck Offline
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I def agree(re: consumerism ) especially now that we have reached a peak in innovation(google articles on this.Its largely regarded as a fact) and we wont see another shift for likely another decade at least in terms of tech that we generally use or have use for(computers, cell phones, tvs. whatever). wut dat s curve do.

The shift of living with less has already begun doe, but until there are some shifts in tech we sort of have our hands tied at the moment on living with alternatives. And a lot of potential ideas right now are not that great and cost too much. But that movement has been well under way for years now and is slowly gaining traction, but at a slow rate for sure.


Short term we are already seeing a shift in our resource economy. Its somehat iffy with the US, so we are lookign to chinar...Harper is attempting to sell out and paint the oil sands as ok but a lot of the world doesnt see it that way.
We are obviously still reliant on oil and will be for decades , but boom and busts will continue to happen out west like they always have.

This being a sole driver of our real estate is a bit to simplistic imo. Itll be highly dependant on local market factors. If there is a correction it will vary depending on location(noshit.jpg). I think the fact one is coming regardless is pretty obvious though. As to how much it will be...will remain to be seen.

Some markets have already been hit by this. Montreal, ottawa in some respects, and out east.


You are diversified y0 so it doesnt really mean much for you.

its those will all their eggs in one basket that should be scared the most.
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#7512963 - 01/23/14 09:35 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
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Not using it as a sole driver of real estate, just pointing out that we need a fundamental shift in our economy to see a change in our real estate market (ie *real* job losses, as in losing entire industries). Insignificant interest rate changes and a few closed down factories don't mean much, that's just Toronto sun deploying the troll drones for glue sniffing natives that need something to ramble on about at the local food bank.
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#7512977 - 01/23/14 09:42 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
Euphoricuck Offline
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Registered: 11/05/03
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I wouldnt call the job loss so far insignificant, especially for those local markets where that factory IS the town. We are losing more jobs than we are creating.( Blackberry is selling most of its real estate holdings.Hardly a nail in the coffin and they have obviously been hurting but shit like that is pretty significant).

Faraz is gonna have a tougher time selling shit. I dont think we need to lose an entire industry to see changes. Its more sensitive than that imo.

Anyways, it dont matter shit what we think. Shit is gonna happen how it happens.
A correction of 30%(for example) to you wouldnt mean much long term.
To the morAns who paid 850k for that shitbox the other day... or some of my friends who just bought and are beyond extended. To them it will definitely hurt.

I just cant logically see prices increasing at the rate they have. that makes zero sense at all. On any level, in any scenario. You need a place to live..fine But to rely on it as some retirement investment vehicle is hugely flawed and you will get burned.


people gonna do whatever the fuck they gunno do doe. The outlook is iffy at best.


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#7513044 - 01/23/14 10:04 AM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Euphoricuck Offline
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Registered: 11/05/03
Posts: 92703
Loc: Canadistan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rWv9fZokqaU
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#7513457 - 01/23/14 12:46 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Euphoricuck]
Happy Birthday Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
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 Originally Posted By: Euphoric
I wouldnt call the job loss so far insignificant, especially for those local markets where that factory IS the town. We are losing more jobs than we are creating.( Blackberry is selling most of its real estate holdings.Hardly a nail in the coffin and they have obviously been hurting but shit like that is pretty significant).

Faraz is gonna have a tougher time selling shit. I dont think we need to lose an entire industry to see changes. Its more sensitive than that imo.

Anyways, it dont matter shit what we think. Shit is gonna happen how it happens.
A correction of 30%(for example) to you wouldnt mean much long term.
To the morAns who paid 850k for that shitbox the other day... or some of my friends who just bought and are beyond extended. To them it will definitely hurt.

I just cant logically see prices increasing at the rate they have. that makes zero sense at all. On any level, in any scenario. You need a place to live..fine But to rely on it as some retirement investment vehicle is hugely flawed and you will get burned.


people gonna do whatever the fuck they gunno do doe. The outlook is iffy at best.




To be honest with you unemployment numbers are a moot point. I've yet to see any sort of correlation between job loss/creation and its direct impact on anything outside of increase in published newspaper articles in the near term (less than 12 months). It's not like the 80's where a key statistic like that meant something. Unemployment data/stats are so skewed and under reported that I personally don't feel it's of much value except for relative comparison YoY.

I am not trying to undermine job losses either am I saying they are ok, just going back to my point that these are considered insignficant events in the grand scheme of things and can't be used as variables that may impact that real estate market, because they really don't. At least I haven't seen any evidence, just goes to show that the market does not follow fundamentals at all.


We can stack up all figures against it to prove it's a bubble, yet time continues to prove otherwise:

1. job losses - increase in unemployment
2. government running a deficit
3. manufacturing is leaving the country
4. interest rates can only go up
5. export with the USA is/was slowing down
6. prices continue to increase at unsustainable levels
7. unsustainable price to rent / income to prive ratio
8. household income is stagnant
9. blah blah blah

I've looked at all this sh!t, you can beat your head down, and I've come to a simple conclusion: you simply can't put too much faith into any of those government issued numbers, the validity in the data is very poor. Don't tell me the average household income in Toronto is 60k, we all know that is not true. And really what does that really mean, that stat is useless if we include all minimum wage workers who don't own a home/will never own a home, why are we using a stat that brings down household income numbers down and then compare it to home ownership, which doesn't affect them.

again, it's all in the details and we don't have relevant data to compare...this is reinforced by the market and the fact that it's still strong

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#7513515 - 01/23/14 12:58 PM Re: wutdat real estate do? [Re: Risky Business]
Happy Birthday Risky Business Offline
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44814
Also, you read too much of the doomsday crap on RFD by people who are way off their rocker. It's like putting your trust in the collective opinion of CSI OT. It's really one person's opinion projected by a bunch of nutswingers. No relevant data, that whole days on market thing you posted really means nothing, again people skew data to favour their point, everyone is picking a side.

So I list my home for 1mil, but it's really 700k...DOM at 600, then relist at 550, DOM is 5, bidding war, sells for 700k.

DOM is irrelevant and so is the price reduction. Bottom line is it sold for 700 when it was welling for 650 last year, nothing else really matters. Price increase/reduction = no value without relative data.

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Coupon Code "hondafetish"
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2-Piece Civic Rotors
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