#7511900 - 01/22/14 04:47 PM
wutdat real estate do?
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4age
XD XD XD XD
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/11/01
Posts: 3969
Loc: North York, Ontario, Canada
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A lot of doom and gloom with condos, but housing continues to be hot in the right areas.
http://www.thestar.com/business/real_est...ove_asking.html
"A renovated semi-detached house in Toronto’s hot Junction Triangle area has gone for almost $210,000 over asking price in a bidding war frenzy fuelled by more than 32 desperate househunters and a property that many believe was deliberately underpriced. The Perth Ave. home, which was listed for $639,900 — area realtors say that’s at least $100,000 under its real market value — attracted more than 400 buyers to a weekend open house. It sold Tuesday night to a couple, two hours after the 7 p.m. close of offers, for an astounding $848,625 with 32 firm bids and another six or eight that were withdrawn at the last minute. But even bigger than the sales price is the massive buzz in the industry."
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#7511914 - 01/22/14 04:56 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: 4age]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44814
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No show of a slowdown here either, in fact more and more houses are being listed since people are getting their asking prices. Every other one to go up is 40k more It's all the old people too moving out
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#7511987 - 01/22/14 05:32 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Risky Business]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19293
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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Also RBC just lowered their rates too.
so did td and bmo as well.. quietly...
however, this post in OT made me a wee bit depressed.
http://forums.clubsi.com/ubbthreads.php/ubb/showflat/Number/7511496/fpart/1
I wish I could be as quick to pay it off in 8 years.
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#7512065 - 01/22/14 06:10 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44814
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Just make more money /csi
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#7512090 - 01/22/14 06:21 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Risky Business]
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Hatorade
pheggit
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Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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Also RBC just lowered their rates too.
My renewal is coming up and we are offered 2yr locked at 2.29% I don't see anything on RFD coming close to that...boo I thought I was going to get it even cheaper.
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#7512139 - 01/22/14 06:54 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Euphoricuck]
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Euphoricuck
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/03
Posts: 92703
Loc: Canadistan
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I hope this isn't a young couple. If a crash happens, all price increases will be wiped out going back a few years. I bought in 1990 at the beginning of the crash and paid a peak price. Interest rates went sky high, and I sold fourteen years later for $14000 more than I bought it for. The youngsters have never seen a crashing market and seem blind to the possibility. Remember, what goes up, eventually comes down, even just a little bit.
dont think we are immune to something like this.
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#7512157 - 01/22/14 07:00 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Euphoricuck]
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spd-dmn
Post Master
Registered: 11/24/04
Posts: 2271
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hey wheres that heatmap from?
is there one for the gta, not just toronto?
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#7512529 - 01/22/14 11:36 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: civic13]
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Euphoricuck
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/03
Posts: 92703
Loc: Canadistan
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#7512798 - 01/23/14 08:28 AM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
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Euphoricuck
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/03
Posts: 92703
Loc: Canadistan
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An industry site, MortgageBroker News, broke the story this week that the bank has changed the fine print in its contracts for conventional (no CMHC insurance) variable-rate mortgages – the kind where your interest charge rises each time the central bank causes primes to move. But it’s not rising rates the bank is worried about, rather falling real estate values.
Here’s the change: If, at any time or for any reason, the value of your house drops to a level which results in your mortgage exceeding 80% of it, the bank can demand you write a cheque to cover the difference. If you don’t, your mortgage goes into default. You also have the right to have your property appraised (at your cost) to prove it’s worth at least 80% of the loaned amount, whenever the bank demands such proof.
The old limit was 75%, and the former wording also limited the nightmare scenario to situations in which rising interest rates triggered the action. This time anything – like unemployment triggering a highly local market decline – means you have a problem.
Says one mortgage broker: “Property value decreases would have a huge impact on all TD variable rate mortgages.”
Says realtor Dan: “I think it’s preparation in the event of a price melt down and they want a 20 % cushion instead 25% to minimize the bank’s exposure to non CMHC mortgages.” Exactly. The bank is preparing its non-insured portfolio against what might be inevitable, if the Bank of Canada is correct. It’s only prudent, if you’re the lender. It’s a potential hell on wheels, if you’re the borrower.
For example, let’s say you bought a $400,000 condo in 2012 with the help of a $75,000 loan from your suffocatingly helpful helicopter parents, then took a $320,000 VRM from the boys at TD. The economy continues to wobble, interest rates don’t change, you’re not selling or moving, but units similar to yours start changing hands for $300,000.
If you’re a bank client, expect a letter like this:
It has come to our attention that the outstanding Principal Amount (including Deferred Interest) of your mortgage now exceeds 80% of the fair market value of the Mortgaged Property as determined by us (with or without an appraisal/valuation), (such amount being the Trigger Point), therefore we give you notice of this excess (the Trigger Point Excess) and within 30 days of the date of this letter you must do one of the following: (i) make a lump sum payment to us at least equal to the amount of the Trigger Point Excess; or (ii) satisfy us that the outstanding Principal Amount (including any Deferred Interest) does not exceed 80% of the fair market value of the Mortgaged Property as established by a qualified real estate appraiser, approved in writing by us, but at your expense.
There are many people who thought this day would never come. Now you know.
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#7512809 - 01/23/14 08:30 AM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Euphoricuck]
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LNXGUY
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 107004
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
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a decent place in barrie for under 200k?not gonna happen
Pretty much.
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#7512866 - 01/23/14 08:50 AM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Risky Business]
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spd-dmn
Post Master
Registered: 11/24/04
Posts: 2271
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would you say there's no substance to the theories that a lot of homeowners are overextended and unprepared for rate hikes?
do you see any scenario in the next 2-3 years that would cause a "correction" even to sub-700 detached?
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#7512886 - 01/23/14 08:58 AM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: spd-dmn]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44814
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Define a lot?
Thousands? Sure, is that a lot in a pool of hundreds of thousands of home owners? No.
I've yet to see an article that's not biased towards either side (bubble vs. healthy). All fundamentals based on income vs. price, price vs. rent show a bubble...yet we've entered a new era of real estate where this seems to be the norm based on significant demographic changes that the GTA has gone through. It's not like this has happened before to this extent. We've also diversified as a financial hub in North America, so not only do we have natural resources, but we've also organically grown other sectors of our economy. Take all of that into account and maybe that's why the *bubble* isn't popping.
Interest rates aren't going up, not any time soon, that's for sure. I was confident when I went with variable in 2011 I'd come way ahead compared to a fixed rate, and just on this term alone I am saving over 20k just based on that. They can't afford to raise the rates, and even if they do not that many people will be affected unless we see interest rates in the double digits (if that was to happen, then the whole world would be going to sh!t at that point).
People get approved on higher rates, a lot are over extended (first time homebuyers) and those buying 700k-800k homes generally aren't first home buyers and have more than 20% equity in their homes.
What will happen, I don't know, but I wouldn't sit around waiting for an apocalypse.
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#7512900 - 01/23/14 09:05 AM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: spd-dmn]
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Euphoricuck
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/03
Posts: 92703
Loc: Canadistan
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fundamental shift in demand for our resources how would you define a fundamental shift? things are already changing in that area.
I totally agree trying to predict it is somewhat silly because froth and hype do crazy things to people. But the condos and 1 mil plus are already hurting. Thats a given.
So that leaves the frothy middle teetering... where are prices to go? Keep climbing past 1 mil? run all the way to 1 mil and stop? People are buying in because they dont want to "miss out" and/or see it as an investment.
1 mil is a ceiling which would stop all these folks in their tracks from buying above that point.(no cmhc). What happens when people lose faith in prices appreciating?
and jobs are being slashed left and right. That will definitely be a factor moving forward.
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#7513044 - 01/23/14 10:04 AM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Euphoricuck]
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Euphoricuck
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/03
Posts: 92703
Loc: Canadistan
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#7513457 - 01/23/14 12:46 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Euphoricuck]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44814
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I wouldnt call the job loss so far insignificant, especially for those local markets where that factory IS the town. We are losing more jobs than we are creating.( Blackberry is selling most of its real estate holdings.Hardly a nail in the coffin and they have obviously been hurting but shit like that is pretty significant). Faraz is gonna have a tougher time selling shit. I dont think we need to lose an entire industry to see changes. Its more sensitive than that imo. Anyways, it dont matter shit what we think. Shit is gonna happen how it happens. A correction of 30%(for example) to you wouldnt mean much long term. To the morAns who paid 850k for that shitbox the other day... or some of my friends who just bought and are beyond extended. To them it will definitely hurt. I just cant logically see prices increasing at the rate they have. that makes zero sense at all. On any level, in any scenario. You need a place to live..fine But to rely on it as some retirement investment vehicle is hugely flawed and you will get burned. people gonna do whatever the fuck they gunno do doe. The outlook is iffy at best.
To be honest with you unemployment numbers are a moot point. I've yet to see any sort of correlation between job loss/creation and its direct impact on anything outside of increase in published newspaper articles in the near term (less than 12 months). It's not like the 80's where a key statistic like that meant something. Unemployment data/stats are so skewed and under reported that I personally don't feel it's of much value except for relative comparison YoY.
I am not trying to undermine job losses either am I saying they are ok, just going back to my point that these are considered insignficant events in the grand scheme of things and can't be used as variables that may impact that real estate market, because they really don't. At least I haven't seen any evidence, just goes to show that the market does not follow fundamentals at all.
We can stack up all figures against it to prove it's a bubble, yet time continues to prove otherwise:
1. job losses - increase in unemployment 2. government running a deficit 3. manufacturing is leaving the country 4. interest rates can only go up 5. export with the USA is/was slowing down 6. prices continue to increase at unsustainable levels 7. unsustainable price to rent / income to prive ratio 8. household income is stagnant 9. blah blah blah
I've looked at all this sh!t, you can beat your head down, and I've come to a simple conclusion: you simply can't put too much faith into any of those government issued numbers, the validity in the data is very poor. Don't tell me the average household income in Toronto is 60k, we all know that is not true. And really what does that really mean, that stat is useless if we include all minimum wage workers who don't own a home/will never own a home, why are we using a stat that brings down household income numbers down and then compare it to home ownership, which doesn't affect them.
again, it's all in the details and we don't have relevant data to compare...this is reinforced by the market and the fact that it's still strong
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#7513515 - 01/23/14 12:58 PM
Re: wutdat real estate do?
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44814
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Also, you read too much of the doomsday crap on RFD by people who are way off their rocker. It's like putting your trust in the collective opinion of CSI OT. It's really one person's opinion projected by a bunch of nutswingers. No relevant data, that whole days on market thing you posted really means nothing, again people skew data to favour their point, everyone is picking a side.
So I list my home for 1mil, but it's really 700k...DOM at 600, then relist at 550, DOM is 5, bidding war, sells for 700k.
DOM is irrelevant and so is the price reduction. Bottom line is it sold for 700 when it was welling for 650 last year, nothing else really matters. Price increase/reduction = no value without relative data.
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