#9799416 - 05/01/20 02:45 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: loudsubz]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Post Master Supreme
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Some news to highlight.
Canadian Banks have deferred 15% of all residential mortgages on their books, in other words 15% of people have "defaulted" on their mortgages.
Also keep in mind you can defer on primary residence mortgages only, investment properties you can't defer on and those are real defaults (no numbers on this yet that I've seen).
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#9799650 - 05/01/20 07:03 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Here we go, negative condo assignments coming up, 30k off (BC).
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#9800797 - 05/03/20 10:17 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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jackedUP_hatch
Jr Member
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 635
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Interesting information. I was close to buying a condo before the lockdown.
Do you foresee the highly leveraged investor/landlords get squeezed out of the game?
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#9800867 - 05/04/20 04:54 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: jackedUP_hatch]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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There are plenty of anecdotal examples right now of condo investors in default. The typical story, buy house and hold for a few years, refinance, pull equity from house, make down payment on "investment" condo, rent condo, condo appreciates, refinance condo, pull equity to spend on cars/house renovation etc.
I know of a few through my network that are in trouble now and with condos possibly to be listed, one managed to drop rent price and got someone in recently (or asking for parents to bail them out). It's happening, people are trying to hang on to dear life in some respects.
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#9801052 - 05/04/20 10:47 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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jackedUP_hatch
Jr Member
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 635
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I used to own an income property and recently sold it to buy something in the city.
I owned the place for over 10 years. I had 'savvy' investors saying to leverage my income property and ride the growth ladder to success. Thankfully I stayed away, as these same people are now feeling the burn. They are in markets like Hamilton, and Oshawa with low-income renters who struggle to pay rent on a normal day.
I'm curious to see how the condo market plays out. Looks like units are selling at more realistic prices. Especially when banks aren't going to give any concessions for non-principal property financing.
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#9801264 - 05/04/20 02:46 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: jackedUP_hatch]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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It's a difficult industry to get transparency, hence why it seems to be very binary, you are either a real estate bull or bear.
That said the leverage model worked if you got lucky timing wise (2008 - 2016), anyone saying to leverage would've been correct in the short term, but obviously short sighted long term if you over leverage and you don't account for cashflow risk from things like covid or job losses/etc.
I still have no idea what will happen, factually condos/rents are currently the only segment hurting, everything else looks ok (potentially high end will get hit too).
The other group of people that are at risk are the ones that timed the market well (bought 5+ years ago), had massive equity gains in their homes, but have average incomes that wouldn't allow them to buy their house at current value with current income. This is the group that will generally borrow against HELOC to sustain a lifestyle or even worse go to a private lender for a second mortgage. We won't know the effects of this for at least 6-12 months, for in the mean time the market might be 'fine'. Surprisingly, this is a large portion of home owners.
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#9803699 - 05/07/20 07:57 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19309
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market?
_________________________
Who cares
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#9803940 - 05/07/20 12:04 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Posts: 45593
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I don't think decline in international students is the issue tbh. Canada is becoming more appealing for immigrants and international students.
The question is can student rents and their respective appreciation/flatness/decline support the asking prices of homes. I've looked at student housing in depth in KW, Guelph, and St. Catherines a couple of years back (Almost bought in Guelph - glad I didn't). They made financial sense then provided you managed them yourself. The ones by UT Mississauga I am going to assume you will not break even and you will have to bank on appreciation to make it worthwhile...that or be a slumlord which works, but has inherent risk.
If you have a specific example it's easier to talk, in general hard to comment since it's always property specific, but I am going to lean to the fact that there are better ways to park money in real esate.
Also more shitty news, google pulled the plug on the sidewalk labs project in the core 
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sidewalk-labs-waterfront-toronto-quayside-vote-1.5342294
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#9804111 - 05/07/20 02:16 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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A lot of condos in the area around sidewalk labs were touting the google tech build as the "feature" to the neighbourhood...so I'd say it's pretty negative because a bunch of jobs just disappeared and it will probably make other developers second guess what they are doing. The worst part is that google isn't short on cash, they legit don't have confidence in the project, which makes it that much worse.
That area is a solid development regardless of who develops it, so the silver lining is that someone else will pop up there regardless.
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#9804380 - 05/07/20 07:23 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Looks like it might've been a good thing after all - the cancellation (they asked for the world at the expense of the tax payers and it was in a ton of red tape with city hall). I think that was a negotiation tactic for a tech dystopia, we will see.
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#9804407 - 05/07/20 07:54 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29176
Loc: Toronto
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market?
Where abouts? I live pretty close to UTM, normal level of homes for sale near me. 2 new homes just sold around the corner at around 2.6 each (bought 1 and turned into 2 lots) which I thought would sit for a very long time.
Not challenging the comment I’m just curious where.
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9804570 - 05/08/20 05:45 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
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Are you saying you are looking for international roommates? How good are your water boiling skills (gotta get that meal premium)? 
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#9804602 - 05/08/20 07:52 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19309
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market? Where abouts? I live pretty close to UTM, normal level of homes for sale near me. 2 new homes just sold around the corner at around 2.6 each (bought 1 and turned into 2 lots) which I thought would sit for a very long time. Not challenging the comment I’m just curious where.
Im assuming near the collegeway and surrounding mississauga road area.
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Who cares
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#9804841 - 05/08/20 11:22 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29176
Loc: Toronto
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Are you saying you are looking for international roommates? How good are your water boiling skills (gotta get that meal premium)?
I will never rent any part of my house out haha. I’m pretty weird about having my own space. Even though lots of money to be made by doing it.
I am working on my boiling skills however....
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9804842 - 05/08/20 11:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29176
Loc: Toronto
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market? Where abouts? I live pretty close to UTM, normal level of homes for sale near me. 2 new homes just sold around the corner at around 2.6 each (bought 1 and turned into 2 lots) which I thought would sit for a very long time. Not challenging the comment I’m just curious where. Im assuming near the collegeway and surrounding mississauga road area.
Im not seeing it around Sherwood Forest and Mississauga road yet
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9807142 - 05/11/20 07:40 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Risky Business (he/him)
Provides a Great Work Environment.
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
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Guy looking to buy a house right now had mortgage pre approval cancelled.
Bank: You are working full time and receiving CERB
Him: My cousins did it and said it's ok and I should do it in case I lost my job
Bank: You are eligible for CERB if you lost your job, this is fraud.
*mortgage got pulled*
shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiet
More of this to come.
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#9807286 - 05/12/20 05:39 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business (he/him)
Provides a Great Work Environment.
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
|
FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market?
AirBnB was first to fall, looks like student housing might be next as schools move to online study:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-universities-announce-online-fall-semesters-1.5565332
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#9807360 - 05/12/20 08:59 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Post Master Supreme
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Posts: 45593
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CRA will quickly learn about the small town of Brampton, Ontario and how 99% of CERB went there
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#9807523 - 05/12/20 11:11 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
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Not bad when 3 cars (1 car driveway) have 24 occasional drivers under the same address.
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#9807654 - 05/12/20 12:41 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
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What about the unlicensed relatives living in the home collecting CERB?
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#9815167 - 05/21/20 06:11 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
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Been following the CMHC data and writing something up now to post on the blog.
CN, wouldn't get too excited about a "crash" or massive drop just yet because the market is showing a completely different picture right now.
Kind of like the stock market right now, companies are in the gutter, but we are 7% from reaching our all time record high 
Disconnect from reality is such amaze!
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#9815218 - 05/21/20 08:14 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business (he/him)]
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Screamin' Type-R
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/20/01
Posts: 47919
Loc: T.O. - Canaduh
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Been following the CMHC data and writing something up now to post on the blog. CN, wouldn't get too excited about a "crash" or massive drop just yet because the market is showing a completely different picture right now. Kind of like the stock market right now, companies are in the gutter, but we are 7% from reaching our all time record high Disconnect from reality is such amaze!
lol dude this is what i been seeing (and sayin). housing market is full retard it is funny, but we can't complain (as home owners) lol. i still feel for those trying to 'get into' the market.
the scary thing though is the ppl who are all behind on rent and even car payments, it's nuts. this economic recovery aspect will take a year for sure, prob more.
_________________________
 "Ban low performance drivers, not high performance cars"
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#9818391 - 05/26/20 10:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Screamin' Type-R]
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furball
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9530
Loc: Toronto, ON
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#9819212 - 05/27/20 05:55 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: furball]
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Risky Business (he/him)
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 45593
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Double form what baseline, notice how they omit context and baseline for sheer shock value. If it DOUBLED from 1% to 2% is it a big deal?
Garbage reporting.
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