#9775488 - 04/05/20 02:13 PM
real estate blog
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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With this lockdown and more time on my hands I decided to try and write out some research I already do on real estate. If you guys care to read, let me know your thoughts.
This is what boredom is pushing us to.
1st blog post br0
http://www.torfeno.com/home/torontos-condo-market-as-lockdown-measures-intensify
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#9775666 - 04/05/20 05:37 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Looks like we are going to have a condo rental shitshow. Had a few notifications of some pretty drastic lease reductions over the last 48 hours (downtown).
Almost a 1/3rd of all price reductions were 10%+ with the highest at 23% less from ask.
Here is the data for all price reductions for condos in W01, C01, C08 over the last 48 hours. That's a significant increase in volume and size of price reductions.
This is an interesting time to be a landlord, if you have tenants work with them so you don't have to compete with the shit that's about to roll downhill with what looks to be a flood of condos.
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#9776001 - 04/06/20 09:33 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Thanks man.
I had to get my license as it's the only way to get access to Stratus/Geowarehouse/etc. If you can't win, join them, as they say.
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#9776025 - 04/06/20 09:53 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: loudsubz]
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Risky Business
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Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Nope, better hold out for the crash
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#9776802 - 04/06/20 08:21 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: 4Three]
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A2B-Lexus
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 04/19/01
Posts: 45550
Loc: Raptors Land
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good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate.
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#9776912 - 04/07/20 06:40 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: A2B-Lexus]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I've been poking around different areas and have come to the conclusion that affluent areas/people not desperate the listings are being terminated/suspended which creates artificial scarcity of available inventory. If you look from Lawrence Park to Markham (some areas I've looked) you still see listings selling at over asking (seems like 50/50 over ask or at ask, very little under).
Downtown condos, very few terminations, leads me to believe people can't afford to net sell.
Going to pull some info today to see if it's time for Euphoric to jump in.
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#9776913 - 04/07/20 06:42 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
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Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth.
Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold".
People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.
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#9776914 - 04/07/20 06:48 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: A2B-Lexus]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate.
One way to leverage if you have the balls is HELOC. If you currently have a HELOC one way I've considered playing it is taking all the money out and putting it in a different financial institution in a high interest savings account and have the cash sit on the sidelines.
Let's assume shit continues to trickle down, banks will reduce HELOC limits, I already had that happen to a business loan. If residential values go down it will most likely be the same impact on unused HELOCs. If you take the money and it sits in a different bank/credit union and you are making the minimum interest payment then you are good and the bank most likely won't/can't do shit. Why call a loan if you are making payments.
Depending on what your HELOC rate is, hopefully close to 3%, you can take the money and throw into a DUCA high interest savings account at 3%, the interest earned will covered interest paid, money is safe from being reduced.
My only issue with this is if the economy gets worse to the point where we need bailouts the banks are safe, I don't know about Credit Unions and the insurance on those accounts is up to 100k so there is a risk that you could get burned on money over a 100k.
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#9776978 - 04/07/20 08:13 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Big Tasty
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19627
Loc: Toronto
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Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth. Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold". People are looking to get out of contracts left and right.
Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on.
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#9777022 - 04/07/20 09:00 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19291
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate. One way to leverage if you have the balls is HELOC. If you currently have a HELOC one way I've considered playing it is taking all the money out and putting it in a different financial institution in a high interest savings account and have the cash sit on the sidelines. Let's assume shit continues to trickle down, banks will reduce HELOC limits, I already had that happen to a business loan. If residential values go down it will most likely be the same impact on unused HELOCs. If you take the money and it sits in a different bank/credit union and you are making the minimum interest payment then you are good and the bank most likely won't/can't do shit. Why call a loan if you are making payments. Depending on what your HELOC rate is, hopefully close to 3%, you can take the money and throw into a DUCA high interest savings account at 3%, the interest earned will covered interest paid, money is safe from being reduced. My only issue with this is if the economy gets worse to the point where we need bailouts the banks are safe, I don't know about Credit Unions and the insurance on those accounts is up to 100k so there is a risk that you could get burned on money over a 100k.
That's fucking brilliant and I don't know why I didn't think of this years ago when I purchased the townhouse for rental. Although I no longer have a second property as it was becoming a headache to deal with tenant and issues with the property. I had the furnace shit the bed on me on the coldest day of the year and the AC shit the bed on me on the hottest day of the year. That was a great time.
Also, the water heater inside the house was mine and it was 9 years old before it started to rot at the bottom.
I ended up selling the townhouse to the people who were renting it from us, but we didn't lose money on the deal. It was more of a mental relief rather than a financial relief.
Do you have any prediction on how the real estate market will fare in the next 6 months or a year from now? I am still on the fence of getting another property, but not at the expense of my mental stress. It's either real estate or invest more into stocks.
_________________________
Who cares
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#9777087 - 04/07/20 09:58 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Yeah, I've got two friends closing their deals in the next few weeks. One deal was made after the pandemic/lockdown was declared so I'd think it's more likely to succeed.
The other deal is to two Indian families who will be sharing the house. I'd hope at least one of them still has a job and the deal can close.
It's a tricky situation. Everything is really person dependent, if you have a job and can carry the house then close the deal, move on.
For those who have lost jobs/etc some of the things being offered are extending the closing dates, but you will have to give more deposit money for the favour. People are trying to work together, but again unprecedented times.
Would suck to be under contract right now for sure, no one knows where the market will be 6 months form now or where people's jobs/careers will be. If it was me I'd go through with whatever deal I did, if I can't afford it then you have to be prepared to lose the deposit or a portion of it depending if the seller signs off to a mutual release (probably not).
Market started off really hot so a lot of people are feeling like they overpaid right about now.
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#9777096 - 04/07/20 10:05 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
|
good read. same boat as most. no $$ to buy anymore real estate. One way to leverage if you have the balls is HELOC. If you currently have a HELOC one way I've considered playing it is taking all the money out and putting it in a different financial institution in a high interest savings account and have the cash sit on the sidelines. Let's assume shit continues to trickle down, banks will reduce HELOC limits, I already had that happen to a business loan. If residential values go down it will most likely be the same impact on unused HELOCs. If you take the money and it sits in a different bank/credit union and you are making the minimum interest payment then you are good and the bank most likely won't/can't do shit. Why call a loan if you are making payments. Depending on what your HELOC rate is, hopefully close to 3%, you can take the money and throw into a DUCA high interest savings account at 3%, the interest earned will covered interest paid, money is safe from being reduced. My only issue with this is if the economy gets worse to the point where we need bailouts the banks are safe, I don't know about Credit Unions and the insurance on those accounts is up to 100k so there is a risk that you could get burned on money over a 100k. That's fucking brilliant and I don't know why I didn't think of this years ago when I purchased the townhouse for rental. Although I no longer have a second property as it was becoming a headache to deal with tenant and issues with the property. I had the furnace shit the bed on me on the coldest day of the year and the AC shit the bed on me on the hottest day of the year. That was a great time. Also, the water heater inside the house was mine and it was 9 years old before it started to rot at the bottom. I ended up selling the townhouse to the people who were renting it from us, but we didn't lose money on the deal. It was more of a mental relief rather than a financial relief. Do you have any prediction on how the real estate market will fare in the next 6 months or a year from now? I am still on the fence of getting another property, but not at the expense of my mental stress. It's either real estate or invest more into stocks.
I have no prediction, but definitely looking at the potential outcome of this whole thing.
Condos are the most at risk because investors/speculators/landlords/etc...if panic sets in and condos start getting unloaded that could cause panic across the board, here is what I am seeing over the last 72 hours:
https://www.torfeno.com/home/toronto-condos-april-7th-update
The government stimulus has a lot to do with this, if people see the light at the end of the tunnel and have the false sense of security from the EI/CERB benefits/whatever real estate usually lags by 3-6 months anyway. As of right now knowing how resilient GTA real estate is I honestly don't see anything drastic changing. Maybe back to 2018 price levels? In 2019 we became the 3rd tech capital in North America after San Francisco and Seattle...
Every time I thought this place will crash, it doesn't, so at this point I am reluctant to even speculate on that.
I think the big issue will be commercial and retail space, I have no idea how malls come out of this or a ton of the little industrial units you see all over the place. Government subsidies are not enough to keep it all afloat if this lasts past Q2 of this year imo. If we get a handle on the virus within two months and people start slowly going back to work we might be ok, beyond that I don't know. Probably more stimulus, which is a race to the bottom.
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#9777104 - 04/07/20 10:08 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: 87ZCSi]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?
On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.
To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...
OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed?
The play is to transfer cash so you don't take a haircut if the banks try to reduce their exposure which they are actively doing. Having cash during a cash crunch would be nice.
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#9777107 - 04/07/20 10:09 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth. Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold". People are looking to get out of contracts left and right. Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on.
When did it sell?
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#9777291 - 04/07/20 11:43 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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87ZCSi
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/06/00
Posts: 7168
Loc: Portland and Toronto
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I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?
On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.
To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...
OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed? The play is to transfer cash so you don't take a haircut if the banks try to reduce their exposure which they are actively doing. Having cash during a cash crunch would be nice.
And after this is all done with the cash do you buy distress sale property, put in market, buy groceries if out of a job and savings depleted, wait and see, put it in your company? I'm interested in hearing the long game.
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#9777371 - 04/07/20 12:16 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: 87ZCSi]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I have lots of thoughts here but posting on a phone. I think mortgages are too high for people to have a massive drop in prices without shifting liability to lenders and screwing up credit. Besides they'll still need a place to live, this is assuming they're still employed. On a panic/worry alone why throw away equity?
On investment side I've been analyzing recently and found that over 10 yrs an index fund outperformed real estate bought in USA during the crash, blew my mind.
To invest a loan you need to also outrun the taxes so a 3% loan at 3% interest costs you money. I absolutely agree though if you want money take it when you don't need it. I have a client paying his equipment lease since last year to the broker in order to hold the loan and now that it's time to pay me the broker can't sell the loan. Omgwtf...
OP maybe I missed it which is entirely possible, but is this observation or is there a play here I missed? The play is to transfer cash so you don't take a haircut if the banks try to reduce their exposure which they are actively doing. Having cash during a cash crunch would be nice. And after this is all done with the cash do you buy distress sale property, put in market, buy groceries if out of a job and savings depleted, wait and see, put it in your company? I'm interested in hearing the long game.
All of the above I guess, for me personally would be distressed assets or plow back into business, whichever has a higher ROI. If lenders lend on securitized business assets then I am all for that distressed property search as diversification.
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#9777591 - 04/07/20 02:18 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Big Tasty
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19627
Loc: Toronto
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Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth. Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold". People are looking to get out of contracts left and right. Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on. When did it sell?
Sold March 12th according to bungol.
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#9778233 - 04/08/20 04:25 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Neighbour just sold before C19 blew up. He sold over asking but according to him "On an artificially low asking price", they were hoping for bidding war but C19 starting hitting the fan so they made out by the skin of their teeth. Is the deal closed? If it's not closed I wouldn't celebrate just yet just because it's "sold". People are looking to get out of contracts left and right. Looking on Bungol it's still listed as sold...that's as much as I have to go on. When did it sell? Sold March 12th according to bungol.
I wouldn't celebrate just yet, with things being where they are he is at risk of the transaction not closing. Luckily for him (depending on how the contract was written) worst case it doesn't close he gets to keep the deposit or a part of it.
Checked Sales for the 15th, if it's the house i think it is there are no conditions on it so he might get lucky and it will go through most likely.
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#9778760 - 04/08/20 12:40 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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How does it work?
Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.
You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?
Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of.
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#9778766 - 04/08/20 12:43 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Here we go, credit squeeze is coming.
Scotia announced you can't use HELOC for DP on second property. That will put a damper on "investment" condos.
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#9778987 - 04/08/20 04:30 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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87ZCSi
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/06/00
Posts: 7168
Loc: Portland and Toronto
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How does it work?
Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.
You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?
Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of.
This happened to me and I had to negotiate how much of the deposit I would retain unless I wanted to go to court. I was allowed to put the house on the market AFTER they didn't close then establish damages then ask them to release a certain amount. In my case, I got $7500 towards interest, taxes, lawn maintenance, and selling it for slightly less the second time.
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#9779369 - 04/09/20 06:38 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: 87ZCSi]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
|
How does it work?
Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.
You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?
Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of. This happened to me and I had to negotiate how much of the deposit I would retain unless I wanted to go to court. I was allowed to put the house on the market AFTER they didn't close then establish damages then ask them to release a certain amount. In my case, I got $7500 towards interest, taxes, lawn maintenance, and selling it for slightly less the second time.
Ok so that makes a big difference, you WERE allowed to list, but they had to breach contract first (not abide by closing date). That was my understanding.
I was confused because hator said the house is tied up even after for up to a year, which I don't understand why it would be. Either way maybe I am not understanding something...
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#9779370 - 04/09/20 06:39 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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From my understanding because there is a APS the sale is still binding unless a mutual release is done. Which is why the vendor can’t sell while they are disputing the APS.
Interesting, I will dig into this.
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#9779471 - 04/09/20 08:50 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I don't think it applies to developers of residential real estate, cops are already driving around looking to hand out 25k fines.
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#9779473 - 04/09/20 08:51 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Pulled data on a popular AirBnB condo, looks like listings for new leases are starting to spike: 12 York
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#9779572 - 04/09/20 10:03 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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87ZCSi
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/06/00
Posts: 7168
Loc: Portland and Toronto
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How does it work?
Let's say 50k down to broker held in escrow or with lawyer, buyer is unable to close due to x,y,z. Transaction falls apart, now deposit should technically belong to seller.
You don't agree to mutual release so then does it go to court, seller is defendant? Do you have to prove damages?
Why can't you sell the house to someone else in the meantime, I don't think the house is tied up as the deposit is a claim on the buyer not the seller, so no possibility of lien that I can think of. This happened to me and I had to negotiate how much of the deposit I would retain unless I wanted to go to court. I was allowed to put the house on the market AFTER they didn't close then establish damages then ask them to release a certain amount. In my case, I got $7500 towards interest, taxes, lawn maintenance, and selling it for slightly less the second time. Ok so that makes a big difference, you WERE allowed to list, but they had to breach contract first (not abide by closing date). That was my understanding. I was confused because hator said the house is tied up even after for up to a year, which I don't understand why it would be. Either way maybe I am not understanding something...
How you're understanding what I'm saying is correct as I recall it. I am not sure that it was tied up after the breach because the sister of the person who breached contract (different last name) bought the house (conditional) to try to allow her sister the time to get the money to buy the house and redeem the original sale. The original purchaser continued to not be able to get the money and so the sister didn't clear conditions. If it was tied up after breach the sister wouldn't have gotten involved. Of course, this is my only experience with this as I was just following my lawyers advice the entire time. My agent was useless. I also remember knowing a week ahead of time (after having already started bridge loan and closing on new property) that it would breach but not being able to do anything about it, just wait it out.
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#9779659 - 04/09/20 10:36 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: 87ZCSi]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I talked to a lawyer that specializes in this stuff earlier today, he said it's pretty easy to enforce forfeiture of deposit and for seller to get the deposit money if buyer breaches contract.
The buyer *could* try and stall the re-listing of the house, but this is very rare and risky because they open themselves up to additional liability if the seller sells at less than what the house was contracted for. Also the sellers lawyer can remove the claim on the home with a visit to the court house and relist right away. It comes down to how the APS was drafted and the conditions, it's generally stacked in the sellers benefit.
In real estate there appears to be a lot of misinformation, you have to root cause everything it seems.
Buyers/Sellers beware.
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#9780397 - 04/09/20 05:49 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: 87ZCSi]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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From what the lawyer I spoke to he told me that 90%+ of problems is the agent poorly advising their client/overstepping their role as an agent/trying to give legal advice. Part of problem is not fully understanding the pre printed legalese on the forms themselves. I guess that makes sense.
There is a point in time you are supposed to hand off the transaction to the lawyer who knows better, but the agent is in a spot where he/she wants to provide value and it's a bit of a dichotomy. I can see both perspectives, but from what I was told a lot of clients get overexposed from shitty advice.
I am learning as I am going, but the more I learn the more I realize the amount of conflicting opinions depending on who you ask.
The TREB MLS database is another shitshow, learning to pull data is some 1982 shit and it's filled with mistakes, double entries, etc. Trying to pull any analysis is like pulling teeth with the system.
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#9780865 - 04/10/20 10:22 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Yep, it's happening.
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#9780919 - 04/10/20 11:06 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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That's the equivalent of predicting the future lol
If it's on bungol/housesigma I am assuming it's sold and conditions have been met, now you have to wait for the closing date and see if ownership transfer takes place to confirm successful close. That's my understanding of it.
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#9781146 - 04/10/20 02:22 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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From what the lawyer I spoke to he told me that 90%+ of problems is the agent poorly advising their client/overstepping their role as an agent/trying to give legal advice. Part of problem is not fully understanding the pre printed legalese on the forms themselves. I guess that makes sense.
There is a point in time you are supposed to hand off the transaction to the lawyer who knows better, but the agent is in a spot where he/she wants to provide value and it's a bit of a dichotomy. I can see both perspectives, but from what I was told a lot of clients get overexposed from shitty advice.
I am learning as I am going, but the more I learn the more I realize the amount of conflicting opinions depending on who you ask.
The TREB MLS database is another shitshow, learning to pull data is some 1982 shit and it's filled with mistakes, double entries, etc. Trying to pull any analysis is like pulling teeth with the system.
There are tons of agents playing mortgage broker and lawyer that have zero clue on wtf they are talking about and absolutely no reason to get involved.
Just like how the whole deposit scenario above that Wes clarified. Learning everyday, but I never give advice when it comes to such things as you don't want to be liable for wrong info and also shouldn't be involved to begin with.
_________________________
'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9781244 - 04/10/20 04:44 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Yea best to not overstep and get in shit later, I guess some people just feel they know everything.
FYI, saw these starting to pop up, Covid 19 circumstance clauses making all current "Sales" a bit easier to walk away from or at least protect the buyer in case fuckery.
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#9781364 - 04/10/20 08:14 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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IntenseDak
Sr Member
Registered: 04/28/01
Posts: 1146
Loc: Oakville Ontario
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I can add some anecdotal color here as I listed a 1-bed condo for sale in the Queen West / Dufferin area on March 10th. The local area (east side of Dufferin, West queen West) had been scorching hot all of 2020 and while I had planned to sell this summer, I figured I'd test the market and see if these early spring bidding wars would push the value beyond what I was ever expecting.
Showings were being booked about 7-10 per day for the first 2 days. Night of Thursday the 12th, Rudy Gobert's positive diagnosis shuts down the NBA. I know I'm screwed. By Friday the word is buzzing around Ontario, and many people realize the quarantine is coming. We had a few showings that weekend. We planned to hold offers on Monday the 16th. We postpone to the 18th to get a few more people through. We end up with 2 offers on the 18th, 1 at asking (Waste of time) and the second was a workable offer. Luckily for me, this buyer had tried and lost on 4-5 condos in the immediate area, and a few had sold for silly prices (700+ for 600 ft and parking) so he appeared to at least be content to pick mine up for a "discount". He had 3 days to review the status cert, and somehow, didn't back out and we went firm on the 23rd. We were able to reach a price that was about 20g shy of where I thought it would have landed, and I accepted as I anticipated the market was going to be put into a tailspin.
I figure I was a week short of selling at an all time high, but very lucky to walk out with a price well above what I was ever hoping for.
50k deposit in trust, hope it works out. They agreed to close in August as that's when my tenants lease was up. Having showings with her living in there during the early Covid-19 days was intense. Luckily she agreed to let people in.
Based on a quick look around bungol, a few condos in the area have sold in the last week and they appear about 30-40g short of what I would have expected in early March. So on 700k we are talking a 5% correction in a matter of 2 weeks.
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#9781375 - 04/10/20 09:08 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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A2B-Lexus
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 04/19/01
Posts: 45550
Loc: Raptors Land
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Sorry to circle back. HELOC definitely could work but just being lazy to deal with a tenant, it never materialized. The way the prices are in the last few years, it almost makes more sense to buy a 2nd house to rent as condo prices before were ape shit crazy.
Probably going to go with cash in hand and eventually put it in the market once things look rock bottom.
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#9781470 - 04/11/20 05:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: IntenseDak]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I can add some anecdotal color here as I listed a 1-bed condo for sale in the Queen West / Dufferin area on March 10th. The local area (east side of Dufferin, West queen West) had been scorching hot all of 2020 and while I had planned to sell this summer, I figured I'd test the market and see if these early spring bidding wars would push the value beyond what I was ever expecting.
Showings were being booked about 7-10 per day for the first 2 days. Night of Thursday the 12th, Rudy Gobert's positive diagnosis shuts down the NBA. I know I'm screwed. By Friday the word is buzzing around Ontario, and many people realize the quarantine is coming. We had a few showings that weekend. We planned to hold offers on Monday the 16th. We postpone to the 18th to get a few more people through. We end up with 2 offers on the 18th, 1 at asking (Waste of time) and the second was a workable offer. Luckily for me, this buyer had tried and lost on 4-5 condos in the immediate area, and a few had sold for silly prices (700+ for 600 ft and parking) so he appeared to at least be content to pick mine up for a "discount". He had 3 days to review the status cert, and somehow, didn't back out and we went firm on the 23rd. We were able to reach a price that was about 20g shy of where I thought it would have landed, and I accepted as I anticipated the market was going to be put into a tailspin.
I figure I was a week short of selling at an all time high, but very lucky to walk out with a price well above what I was ever hoping for.
50k deposit in trust, hope it works out. They agreed to close in August as that's when my tenants lease was up. Having showings with her living in there during the early Covid-19 days was intense. Luckily she agreed to let people in.
Based on a quick look around bungol, a few condos in the area have sold in the last week and they appear about 30-40g short of what I would have expected in early March. So on 700k we are talking a 5% correction in a matter of 2 weeks.
You got very lucky for two reasons.
1. You sold at the *perfect* time in relation to this crisis, yes a week or two would've been ideal, but you dodged a big bullet here. Effectively you got top dollar.
2. Deal doesn't close, you just made 50k 
Keep me posted if you encounter any issues with the closing as it's far away, trying to see how people behave throughout this. Things should start returning back to normal, the only concern would be is if the person paid 700k for example and comps are sitting at 600k or less in August it would be hard to justify going through. They might walk away from the deposit.
Hopefully it works out for you, I will keep posting info on condo prices for that area to see how it's trending.
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#9781540 - 04/11/20 10:35 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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LNXGUY
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 106960
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
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I'm glad I got into my place before all the craziness really started to go down. Although finding buddies to help me move on the 30th is going to be a pain in the ass 
_________________________
-Bill The GN would OWN you, your children and your children's children. '09 E90 335 d 
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#9781554 - 04/11/20 11:10 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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IntenseDak
Sr Member
Registered: 04/28/01
Posts: 1146
Loc: Oakville Ontario
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You got very lucky for two reasons. 1. You sold at the *perfect* time in relation to this crisis, yes a week or two would've been ideal, but you dodged a big bullet here. Effectively you got top dollar. 2. Deal doesn't close, you just made 50k Keep me posted if you encounter any issues with the closing as it's far away, trying to see how people behave throughout this. Things should start returning back to normal, the only concern would be is if the person paid 700k for example and comps are sitting at 600k or less in August it would be hard to justify going through. They might walk away from the deposit. Hopefully it works out for you, I will keep posting info on condo prices for that area to see how it's trending.
re: item 1, ya as the weeks pass I feel better and better about the decision. I had been expecting 5-10 offers so even by the 18th the demand was pulling back. We felt like given how crazy things were, we might have reached 670-680k but ended up selling for 650k. Keep in mind this is a 570sq ft unit (it looks like a 600ft+ unit because it has a perfect layout without wasted space). Its definitely top of the market per foot for the area.
re: item 2, you read my mind. part of me wonders if I'd prefer the 50k and hold onto the unit to sell in a few years LOL #greed
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#9781586 - 04/11/20 12:27 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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This has been far a much helpful thread than any other investment/real state discussion online. Although I do have questions with regards to the down-spin of the real state sales as of late, how many mortgage brokerage businesses will be affected? How many will or could survive through the COVID-19? How many will cease to operate due to the lack of sales? Do you have access to the mortgage sales data?
Too early to tell anything in terms of what happens. My personal view started off as this will be pretty bad to now I am starting to think it won't be.
For starters majority of job losses were hourly/min wage workers, I think less than 2.5% of all EI claims were for salaried employees making over 75k. In other words, the typical buyer is so far unaffected by Covid. That's not to say they won't be, but as of right now I think people have a false sense of security. Could be entirely different in a month or two.
As far as mortgage brokers, they are all experiencing a blip now like the real estate industry, but in the end whether the market crashes, sales will happen one way or another, be it distressed sales/desperate sales/bidding wars/whatever happens. The only downside for a mortgage broker is if prices crash so much that mortgage loans are significantly lower as an aggregate amount. The other issue is if less people qualify if lenders become more strict around lending rules and what they consider "safe jobs". At that point someone who had a full time job that's not deemed safe might have to jump through hoops and qualify as self employed as an example. This is just a theory for now.
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#9786683 - 04/17/20 09:42 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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#9787172 - 04/17/20 02:42 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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A staggering 7.5 million applications approved for the Canada Emergency Response Program to date. That’s about 37% of the entire labour force!
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#9787710 - 04/18/20 08:25 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Here we go, mainlanders cashing out at pretty big losses of their HK properties, spillover coming
About half of mainland Chinese investors are planning to reduce their investments in overseas markets this year, according to Cushman&Wakefield.
https://www.scmp.com/business/article/30...rty-after-china
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#9789549 - 04/20/20 07:09 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Noticed my first big real estate hit today in Oakville post covid.
Nice street, 2019 listings all moved around $1M or just over.
List was 1.07M 5 weeks ago in line with home, reduced offer to 995k 2 weeks ago, sold over weekend for 890k. shiiiiiet
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#9790092 - 04/21/20 12:04 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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LNXGUY
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 106960
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
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Noticed my first big real estate hit today in Oakville post covid.
Nice street, 2019 listings all moved around $1M or just over.
List was 1.07M 5 weeks ago in line with home, reduced offer to 995k 2 weeks ago, sold over weekend for 890k. shiiiiiet
SiRKID BAT SIGNAL!
_________________________
-Bill The GN would OWN you, your children and your children's children. '09 E90 335 d
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#9790340 - 04/21/20 02:15 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: LNXGUY]
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Simon_the_Pieman
Post Master Sr
Registered: 08/13/01
Posts: 9462
Loc: The A
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Noticed my first big real estate hit today in Oakville post covid.
Nice street, 2019 listings all moved around $1M or just over.
List was 1.07M 5 weeks ago in line with home, reduced offer to 995k 2 weeks ago, sold over weekend for 890k. shiiiiiet SiRKID BAT SIGNAL!
_________________________
"I'd love it if we did it... but I guess I'm a big skeptic on Canadians because so many are retarded as fuck." - 355-Si, 2020
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#9790528 - 04/21/20 04:21 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Noticed my first big real estate hit today in Oakville post covid.
Nice street, 2019 listings all moved around $1M or just over.
List was 1.07M 5 weeks ago in line with home, reduced offer to 995k 2 weeks ago, sold over weekend for 890k. shiiiiiet  Fine by me. Homes are still expensive today, no matter how you spin it. So if home prices are going down, does that mean rent is also going down too?
Rent is already going down.
Too early to say that about home prices because there isn't enough data.
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#9790539 - 04/21/20 04:28 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Ouch, the examples keep coming in.
Home in Unionville sold for 2.6M in 2017, sold for 2M yesterday.
We definitely seeing shit popping off now. I saw something similar for an EY bungalow last week. Still not enough data, but yea we can see where this is going.
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#9790824 - 04/22/20 04:53 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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#9791122 - 04/22/20 12:20 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Senor Eduardo_82
miataist
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
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#9791192 - 04/22/20 01:13 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Damn, it's scary when it's a *better* type resto and arguably Class A space, at least close to it.
This will be it for all the shitty strip malls for sure, unless tenant/landlord relationships prevail and they work together.
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#9792073 - 04/23/20 12:01 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
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LNXGUY
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 106960
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
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This is going to get bad.
_________________________
-Bill The GN would OWN you, your children and your children's children. '09 E90 335 d
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#9792084 - 04/23/20 12:08 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Anyone aware of a form for landlords where they will somehow be reimbursed for missed rental payments? Not sure that it applies to commercial, but more so for residential.
If you take your tenant to court and are able to collect, sure. Or are you asking if the government is now going pay rent to landlords on behalf of tenants?
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#9792136 - 04/23/20 12:42 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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SuPeR-MaRiO
Post Master Sr
Registered: 06/28/01
Posts: 6118
Loc: Toronto, Ontario
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Anyone aware of a form for landlords where they will somehow be reimbursed for missed rental payments? Not sure that it applies to commercial, but more so for residential. If you take your tenant to court and are able to collect, sure. Or are you asking if the government is now going pay rent to landlords on behalf of tenants?
I was told it was the latter, but I'm trying to confirm. I dont know any of the details (if true), conditions or stipulations.
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#9792147 - 04/23/20 12:53 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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The rumour was around since Corona started, so really consider the source.
It doesn't make sense to do that for many reasons that I won't get into.
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#9792926 - 04/24/20 07:58 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: SuPeR-MaRiO]
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Senor Eduardo_82
miataist
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
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#9793013 - 04/24/20 09:43 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Good to know, thanks!
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#9793067 - 04/24/20 11:02 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Ask if the lenders did a last minute minute check the day before close. Deals are closing if you are still technically employed, but with the caveat of these last minute employment checks.
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#9793395 - 04/24/20 03:24 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Big Tasty
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19627
Loc: Toronto
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Holy hell, browsing Bungol out of boredom and came across a house with this as one of the listing pics they put up.
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#9793428 - 04/24/20 03:55 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Send me the MLS ID, i want to see the broker that listed this 
I am impressed how not one upper door lines up.
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#9793476 - 04/24/20 05:07 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Big Tasty
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19627
Loc: Toronto
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#9793765 - 04/24/20 09:30 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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A2B-Lexus
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 04/19/01
Posts: 45550
Loc: Raptors Land
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lmao............that's awful
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#9793801 - 04/24/20 10:53 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: A2B-Lexus]
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LNXGUY
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 106960
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
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Did they run out of money for windows?
_________________________
-Bill The GN would OWN you, your children and your children's children. '09 E90 335 d
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#9793988 - 04/25/20 12:26 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Drove down unionville main street, the For Lease signs are popping up 
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#9794360 - 04/26/20 05:17 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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So bankruptcy filings are way down, dropped in March, and massively dropped in April, but debt is going through the roof. 60-90 day lag for sure, personal insolvency will probably explode once courts are opened and we have some normalcy. I think the impact of everything that's happened to date and the consequences will really punch us in the face.
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#9794603 - 04/26/20 05:24 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Just like my guy at Cushman said a few weeks back, 50%+ of restos won't open...here we are now numbers are coming in and it's looking bad.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pp3oJpvylss
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#9794658 - 04/26/20 07:10 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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My bad, I was referring to the part of the interview where they had the spokesperson for Restaurants Canada mention the stats coming in:
https://youtu.be/pp3oJpvylss?t=116
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#9794830 - 04/27/20 05:17 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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That's assuming they are well managed, usually not the case.
Like you mentioned payroll and TMI are the biggest costs. Payroll can be flexed so let's assume everyone is laid off, rent accrues, the big issue is that restaurants have shitty margins and their entire cashflow is subsidized by them extended their trade payables with suppliers. Ask any food distributor and resto will stretch payment for food 60-90 days, yet they collect their reveneue right away, like a grocery store. This is a crutch all of them rely on that gives 2 months of cashflow interest free.
Problem is payroll is flex, they are behind on rent, but they owe 2-3 months worth of food that is now expired/tossed, above and beyond rent. Also many owners treat their businesses like a piggy bank. Between personal insolvency, owning to suppliers and being behind on rent, even 2 weeks of being shut down and you are not coming back.
The whole resto business model is like that, that's why they all do their 2-5 year run, close shop, re-open under new name.
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#9797040 - 04/29/20 04:56 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: loudsubz]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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#9797483 - 04/29/20 02:08 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Wildout
Post Master Jr
Registered: 11/26/07
Posts: 1767
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#9797824 - 04/29/20 08:30 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Senor Eduardo_82
miataist
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
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Yeah, I've got two friends closing their deals in the next few weeks. One deal was made after the pandemic/lockdown was declared so I'd think it's more likely to succeed.
The other deal is to two Indian families who will be sharing the house. I'd hope at least one of them still has a job and the deal can close. Deal two closed yesterday. Deal one is set to close on Monday.
Also closed.
And another friend signed to buy a place next month.
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#9797998 - 04/30/20 08:30 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Good to see.
From my perspective it looks like the following happened (loose numbers).
80% of listings went off market, 50% of buyers stopped actively looking, end result artificial demand as listings are scarce.
That said March and April were the lowest months for solds over ask, but prices are holding steady, kind of. What happened is because a lot of luxury listings were pulled and there are very few luxury/high end homes changing hands it has skewed the average prices lower on the monthly reports from TREB. Meaning it shows lower average prices but if you drill down under 1.5M it seems to be within 5% of the month before.
That said, because the shitty access to data we get it's impossible to get a porper view of this. ffs
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#9798004 - 04/30/20 08:38 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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That said condos are taking a beating and deals are happening below 'market' on leases and sales and they are moving very quick.
Detaached and 905 in general has been ok for now.
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#9798265 - 04/30/20 12:26 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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TD's forecast is skewed in the way it's presented, that gain is mostly because of how strong the year started Jan 1 - March 15, then they assume we remain steady for the rest of the year, hence why the increase.
That said ideals aside cheaper housing is necessary, but the GTA real estate market has punched us all in the face with its resilience so I wouldn't be holding my breath for any drastic changes overall. There will be micro failures (certain condos), otherwise it's all holding steady for now.
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#9799416 - 05/01/20 02:45 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: loudsubz]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Some news to highlight.
Canadian Banks have deferred 15% of all residential mortgages on their books, in other words 15% of people have "defaulted" on their mortgages.
Also keep in mind you can defer on primary residence mortgages only, investment properties you can't defer on and those are real defaults (no numbers on this yet that I've seen).
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#9799650 - 05/01/20 07:03 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Here we go, negative condo assignments coming up, 30k off (BC).
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#9800797 - 05/03/20 10:17 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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jackedUP_hatch
Jr Member
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 635
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Interesting information. I was close to buying a condo before the lockdown.
Do you foresee the highly leveraged investor/landlords get squeezed out of the game?
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#9800867 - 05/04/20 04:54 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: jackedUP_hatch]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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There are plenty of anecdotal examples right now of condo investors in default. The typical story, buy house and hold for a few years, refinance, pull equity from house, make down payment on "investment" condo, rent condo, condo appreciates, refinance condo, pull equity to spend on cars/house renovation etc.
I know of a few through my network that are in trouble now and with condos possibly to be listed, one managed to drop rent price and got someone in recently (or asking for parents to bail them out). It's happening, people are trying to hang on to dear life in some respects.
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#9801052 - 05/04/20 10:47 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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jackedUP_hatch
Jr Member
Registered: 05/21/02
Posts: 635
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I used to own an income property and recently sold it to buy something in the city.
I owned the place for over 10 years. I had 'savvy' investors saying to leverage my income property and ride the growth ladder to success. Thankfully I stayed away, as these same people are now feeling the burn. They are in markets like Hamilton, and Oshawa with low-income renters who struggle to pay rent on a normal day.
I'm curious to see how the condo market plays out. Looks like units are selling at more realistic prices. Especially when banks aren't going to give any concessions for non-principal property financing.
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#9801264 - 05/04/20 02:46 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: jackedUP_hatch]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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It's a difficult industry to get transparency, hence why it seems to be very binary, you are either a real estate bull or bear.
That said the leverage model worked if you got lucky timing wise (2008 - 2016), anyone saying to leverage would've been correct in the short term, but obviously short sighted long term if you over leverage and you don't account for cashflow risk from things like covid or job losses/etc.
I still have no idea what will happen, factually condos/rents are currently the only segment hurting, everything else looks ok (potentially high end will get hit too).
The other group of people that are at risk are the ones that timed the market well (bought 5+ years ago), had massive equity gains in their homes, but have average incomes that wouldn't allow them to buy their house at current value with current income. This is the group that will generally borrow against HELOC to sustain a lifestyle or even worse go to a private lender for a second mortgage. We won't know the effects of this for at least 6-12 months, for in the mean time the market might be 'fine'. Surprisingly, this is a large portion of home owners.
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#9803699 - 05/07/20 07:57 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19291
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market?
_________________________
Who cares
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#9803940 - 05/07/20 12:04 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I don't think decline in international students is the issue tbh. Canada is becoming more appealing for immigrants and international students.
The question is can student rents and their respective appreciation/flatness/decline support the asking prices of homes. I've looked at student housing in depth in KW, Guelph, and St. Catherines a couple of years back (Almost bought in Guelph - glad I didn't). They made financial sense then provided you managed them yourself. The ones by UT Mississauga I am going to assume you will not break even and you will have to bank on appreciation to make it worthwhile...that or be a slumlord which works, but has inherent risk.
If you have a specific example it's easier to talk, in general hard to comment since it's always property specific, but I am going to lean to the fact that there are better ways to park money in real esate.
Also more shitty news, google pulled the plug on the sidewalk labs project in the core
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/sidewalk-labs-waterfront-toronto-quayside-vote-1.5342294
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#9804111 - 05/07/20 02:16 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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A lot of condos in the area around sidewalk labs were touting the google tech build as the "feature" to the neighbourhood...so I'd say it's pretty negative because a bunch of jobs just disappeared and it will probably make other developers second guess what they are doing. The worst part is that google isn't short on cash, they legit don't have confidence in the project, which makes it that much worse.
That area is a solid development regardless of who develops it, so the silver lining is that someone else will pop up there regardless.
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#9804380 - 05/07/20 07:23 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Looks like it might've been a good thing after all - the cancellation (they asked for the world at the expense of the tax payers and it was in a ton of red tape with city hall). I think that was a negotiation tactic for a tech dystopia, we will see.
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#9804407 - 05/07/20 07:54 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market?
Where abouts? I live pretty close to UTM, normal level of homes for sale near me. 2 new homes just sold around the corner at around 2.6 each (bought 1 and turned into 2 lots) which I thought would sit for a very long time.
Not challenging the comment I’m just curious where.
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9804570 - 05/08/20 05:45 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Are you saying you are looking for international roommates? How good are your water boiling skills (gotta get that meal premium)? 
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#9804602 - 05/08/20 07:52 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19291
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market? Where abouts? I live pretty close to UTM, normal level of homes for sale near me. 2 new homes just sold around the corner at around 2.6 each (bought 1 and turned into 2 lots) which I thought would sit for a very long time. Not challenging the comment I’m just curious where.
Im assuming near the collegeway and surrounding mississauga road area.
_________________________
Who cares
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#9804841 - 05/08/20 11:22 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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Are you saying you are looking for international roommates? How good are your water boiling skills (gotta get that meal premium)?
I will never rent any part of my house out haha. I’m pretty weird about having my own space. Even though lots of money to be made by doing it.
I am working on my boiling skills however....
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9804842 - 05/08/20 11:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market? Where abouts? I live pretty close to UTM, normal level of homes for sale near me. 2 new homes just sold around the corner at around 2.6 each (bought 1 and turned into 2 lots) which I thought would sit for a very long time. Not challenging the comment I’m just curious where. Im assuming near the collegeway and surrounding mississauga road area.
Im not seeing it around Sherwood Forest and Mississauga road yet
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9807142 - 05/11/20 07:40 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Guy looking to buy a house right now had mortgage pre approval cancelled.
Bank: You are working full time and receiving CERB
Him: My cousins did it and said it's ok and I should do it in case I lost my job
Bank: You are eligible for CERB if you lost your job, this is fraud.
*mortgage got pulled*
shiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiet
More of this to come.
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#9807286 - 05/12/20 05:39 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
|
FYI, just something to point out to you with regards to your long term take: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/post-secondary-enrollment-1.5554348
the federal government reported foreign students contributed an estimated $21.6 billion to Canada's GDP in 2018 and that, between 2014 and 2018, the number of international students studying in Canada increased by 68 per cent.
I know in Mississauga area where there are lots of international students residing near UTM and my parents have mentioned that a fair amount of homes near the UTM campus are up for sale. What are your thoughts? The potential of decline of international student enrollment that will have an impact on real estate market?
AirBnB was first to fall, looks like student housing might be next as schools move to online study:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/quebec-universities-announce-online-fall-semesters-1.5565332
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#9807360 - 05/12/20 08:59 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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CRA will quickly learn about the small town of Brampton, Ontario and how 99% of CERB went there
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#9807523 - 05/12/20 11:11 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Not bad when 3 cars (1 car driveway) have 24 occasional drivers under the same address.
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#9807654 - 05/12/20 12:41 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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What about the unlicensed relatives living in the home collecting CERB?
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#9815167 - 05/21/20 06:11 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Been following the CMHC data and writing something up now to post on the blog.
CN, wouldn't get too excited about a "crash" or massive drop just yet because the market is showing a completely different picture right now.
Kind of like the stock market right now, companies are in the gutter, but we are 7% from reaching our all time record high
Disconnect from reality is such amaze!
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#9815218 - 05/21/20 08:14 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Screamin Type ARGH!
High Value Poster
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/20/01
Posts: 47669
Loc: T.O. - Canaduh
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Been following the CMHC data and writing something up now to post on the blog. CN, wouldn't get too excited about a "crash" or massive drop just yet because the market is showing a completely different picture right now. Kind of like the stock market right now, companies are in the gutter, but we are 7% from reaching our all time record high Disconnect from reality is such amaze!
lol dude this is what i been seeing (and sayin). housing market is full retard it is funny, but we can't complain (as home owners) lol. i still feel for those trying to 'get into' the market.
the scary thing though is the ppl who are all behind on rent and even car payments, it's nuts. this economic recovery aspect will take a year for sure, prob more.
_________________________
 "Ban low performance drivers, not high performance cars"
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#9818391 - 05/26/20 10:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
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furball
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9484
Loc: Toronto, ON
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#9819212 - 05/27/20 05:55 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: furball]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Double form what baseline, notice how they omit context and baseline for sheer shock value. If it DOUBLED from 1% to 2% is it a big deal?
Garbage reporting.
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#9820055 - 05/27/20 03:49 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: loudsubz]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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Showings are up and registered offers are up.... bubble is bursting lol gonna quote this might also have to do with the nicer weather and people being let back out to do things again, but too soon junior
Quote me all you want sweetie. Till the inventory issue is resolved real estate will only go one way.
_________________________
'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9820071 - 05/27/20 04:02 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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loudsubz
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/16/01
Posts: 11333
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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Showings are up and registered offers are up.... bubble is bursting lol gonna quote this might also have to do with the nicer weather and people being let back out to do things again, but too soon junior Quote me all you want sweetie. Till the inventory issue is resolved real estate will only go one way.
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#9820644 - 05/28/20 10:16 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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There is very little point in trying to argue the real estate market. I think we all know it's overvalued based on financial metrics, the uncoupling of ROI and real estate happened around a decade or so ago. People are now buying based on confidence of appreciation into the future, right or wrong, this is what's happening hence why it stays propped up. There are a lot of people on the sidelines with cash on hand ready to pounce, which means even if there is a drop it will get propped up again by the next wave of people.
The funny part is that there are a number of people who have lost a lot of money on assignment sales or even resales over the last 2-3 years, but it's kept hush for the next sucker I guess.
Like everything in life you have to do your due diligence, there is still 'reasonable' real estate to be bought and there are a ton of turds being pushed too.
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#9820922 - 05/28/20 01:22 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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And while things are currently on the upswing now, what concerns me and any one that's currently inquiring about buying is if CMHC's forecast becomes reality.
Couple of things to note, they never release such downward forecasts and I think they are being transparent now to get themselves in line for a future bailout. The government won't be able to say they weren't warned.
Politics aside, the scary part for me personally is that CMHC is probably the best organization that's in a position to forecast default and price reduction. Unlike banks that are operating in silos CMHC has a consolidated view of everyone and the most at risk mortgages. They also hold and have the data on all defaults that are happening or about to happen, so shit that hasn't been reported yet is more likely than not factored in here.
Something worth considering on the buying and selling side.
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#9822078 - 05/29/20 01:46 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Screamin Type ARGH!]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Here is a good summary of the deferrals:
But some customers who asked to defer payments may have decided to keep paying, or perhaps subsequently received government support that allowed them to do so, which could cut down the number of loans currently going unpaid.
That total represents more than 14 per cent of the $1.24 trillion in residential mortgages that chartered banks had on their balance sheets as of March, according to Bank of Canada’s numbers.
https://business.financialpost.com/news/...obox=1590775461
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#9822235 - 05/29/20 04:28 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Big Tasty
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19627
Loc: Toronto
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https://torontolife.com/real-estate/sale...ovated-himself/
Address: 82 Campbell Avenue
Neighbourhood: Junction Triangle
Agent: Monte Burris, Trust Realty Group, Keller William Referred Urban
Previously sold for: $635,000, in 2015, prior to renovations
Listed for: $1,300,000
Sold for: $1,427,000
The property
An 1,800-square-foot home near Bloor and Dundas. This four-bed, three-bath semi blends old and new, with a traditional Edwardian façade and a Scandi-inspired interior. Plus, it’s got a detached garage and a potential income suite.
The history
This house was built in 1910. More than a century later, in 2015, a Toronto District School Board supply teacher bought the place for $635,000. The teacher, who is also a trained carpenter, then spent the next five years renovating the place with the help of friends and family. His vision for the design included elements from disparate eras. That’s why the place has a modern minimalist interior, along with old-fashioned features like leaded glass and an imitation transom window. The seller originally planned to live in the house upon completing the reno, but has since decided to move elsewhere.
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#9823191 - 05/31/20 12:20 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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and the dog walker heard it from other dogs.
🤣
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#9827532 - 06/04/20 01:25 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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DEVELOPING STORY: According to sources:
@CMHC_ca
will announce lower debt ratio limits and higher credit score minimums for its insured mortgages, and ban borrowed down payments. If our sources are correct, this news could drop soon. The Spy will give you the scoop once it does.
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#9828188 - 06/05/20 05:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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furball
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9484
Loc: Toronto, ON
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#9828628 - 06/05/20 01:47 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Yep, we are back in a buying frenzy 
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#9833399 - 06/11/20 12:56 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Market is on absolute fire this week, jfc. Lots of confidence out there.
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#9834547 - 06/12/20 08:27 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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It’s becoming like NYC - you want to live in Manhattan and work there too? Good luck or you need some $
It’s to be expected though.
CMHC has been run like a profit centre for so long and now that they will finally have to pay out at a higher rate they are using their aggressive projections to change their criteria to mitigate that. However that’s just smart business.
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9834682 - 06/13/20 07:28 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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The Manhattan comment, while true my only criticism to it is that there is a massive pay disparity. In particular for the large amount of tech jobs coming into the downtown core the pay between Toronto vs. SF/Seattle is signficantly lower (which is why the jobs are coming here). But what gets 200k USD in SF is in the 100k CAD range (more or less). Good pay, but it's paycheque to paycheque living on a 700k condo. To the moon.
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#9842886 - 06/24/20 12:09 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19291
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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Oh, here you go: j/k Support Quality Journalism
_________________________
Who cares
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#9843246 - 06/24/20 04:25 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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On the ground things are crazy, trying to put offers in right now is a fool's errand, absolutely erratic shit and people are overpaying to 'get in', 15 minute viewings, GTFO. Worst time to be a buyer right now imo, best to wait for the fall for the frenzy to stabilize when it doesn't feel like you have a gun to your head (this is for towns/semis/detached under $2m), good time to look at condos and I've seen some decent deals on condo assignments from people who can't afford to close. Otherwise it's a pure sellers market right now. 
Amount of new listings coming up however is outpacing the number of sales so hopefully that slows things down.
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#9843583 - 06/25/20 05:24 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: TheRealCSnapper]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I wanted that unit bad  Been looking around Camden and King/Bathurst for a while, but I am settling in on the fact that boat passed in roughly 2016 when it made sense, it's a dice roll now. Need to focus more on east of Yonge where there are some deals. It only makes sense if appreciation continues its current pace, otherwise it's pissing money away. All the deals on condos are in the 700k+ range 2bed, PH, and usually to clean up/flip, not to rent.
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#9843777 - 06/25/20 10:25 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Had to dig around for some data for detached in 416 and decided to check listings vs. solds, yea....about that. Looks like new listings are on fire, stabilizing the shitshow we have now. Will be curious to see if over the next few weeks this pace of listings cools off the market and potentially turn it the other way as we get to fall.
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#9844052 - 06/25/20 12:57 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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Place I know sold many units, resale, rentals and pre con so far
My brother even bid on a home and it went for about 10% over asking (price wasn’t sandbagged) earlier this week (detached home)
People still buying lots it seems. I’m pretty close to this stuff now too.
I’m not the authority at all but I see a lot of this stuff
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9844163 - 06/25/20 02:01 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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Buddy’s place just sold I believe for 2.8
https://youtu.be/jbG3w0I8Nuo
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9844173 - 06/25/20 02:07 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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jesus, can I be your buddy?
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#9844202 - 06/25/20 02:27 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Note to self, become Jeff's buddy.
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#9844881 - 06/26/20 10:06 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: c2k]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Did a quick case study on negative cash flow condos, it seems a lot of people can't wrap their heads around why people still buy them:
https://www.torfeno.com/home/the-negative-cashflow-condo-case-study
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#9845141 - 06/26/20 01:26 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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jesus, can I be your buddy?
You already are - now just to buy a tear down house and build it up over many years. It’s not me making that kind of money...
Really though I just posted it to show that high priced places are still selling in this market. If you know the area you know that it isn’t some super high end premium location. It’s just a nice house in Toronto
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9845319 - 06/26/20 03:56 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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loudsubz
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/16/01
Posts: 11333
Loc: Ontario, Canada
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normally I hate those tacky homes, but this one is amazing, your buddy has nice taste. Is your buddy hiring (whatever he does) lol
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#9845566 - 06/26/20 08:39 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: loudsubz]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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He’s a contractor and his wife is an interior designer. He built this house
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9845662 - 06/27/20 08:58 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: JEFFOS]
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Simon_the_Pieman
Post Master Sr
Registered: 08/13/01
Posts: 9462
Loc: The A
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He’s a contractor and his wife is an interior designer. He built this house
this is the way.
_________________________
"I'd love it if we did it... but I guess I'm a big skeptic on Canadians because so many are retarded as fuck." - 355-Si, 2020
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#9850094 - 07/02/20 06:06 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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Senor Eduardo_82
miataist
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
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My parents bought our last family house in 1994. 4br, 2.5ba, 2350sqft. It was moderately updated over the years but nothing extravagant. Replace some carpet with laminate, paint, that kinda stuff. Sold it in 2011 when they went into their condo.
I found out it was sold again last fall so I looked up the pics. Still the original kitchen, bathrooms, some window coverings, even my sister's old furniture (circa 1994ish) that was left with the new owners in 2011 was still there. The only major changes were Cali shutters and a larger deck in the backyard.
Still sold for $1MM.
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#9874886 - 08/07/20 07:19 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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furball
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9484
Loc: Toronto, ON
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#9875298 - 08/07/20 06:38 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: furball]
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Denis Si
Post Master
Registered: 04/11/01
Posts: 2798
Loc: T.O.
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Why are prices going up? Who the fuck is buying ?
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#9875432 - 08/08/20 05:33 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Denis Si]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I am seeing 2 profiles of buyers:
1. Those who sold high and are buying high, no fucks given here.
2. Kids who ask mom and dad for downpayment, mom and dad pull HELOC on house to give to kids (typical arrangement). Effectively you have 3 families paying for a home. Parents of kids paying off downpayment, kids paying mortgage. A lot more common than I previously thought. Given how expensive things are at, we are all probably going to be doing the same Maybe even get the grandparents involved by 2040!!!
Inventory is still pretty low and you have 3-4 months of pent up demand.
I have a feeling a lot of people who buy now will live with regret in the near term. Otherwise, it's a great time to be a seller especially for hard to move properties. I am working on one near a power line right now that usually sells 200k-300k less than comps 1km away from the powerline. Between no houses available and where things are at this listing will probably get 150k more than it's supposed to.
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#9875689 - 08/08/20 05:45 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Denis Si]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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Why are prices going up? Who the fuck is buying ?
Simple. Lack of supply and money is super cheap to borrow now.
_________________________
'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9876271 - 08/10/20 05:00 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Also people making dumb decisions (moving far out).
Shopify has 250k locked in at The Well, employees can work from home, yet during the pandemic they secured another 90k sq. ft. at the same place and increasing their footprint.
CN: Working from home is temporary despite what employers say.
Good luck with that commute from Barrie tho
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#9877157 - 08/10/20 10:21 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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Also people making dumb decisions (moving far out).
Shopify has 250k locked in at The Well, employees can work from home, yet during the pandemic they secured another 90k sq. ft. at the same place and increasing their footprint.
CN: Working from home is temporary despite what employers say.
Good luck with that commute from Barrie tho
Couldn’t agree more. Let’s face it. Businesses will want employees back in the office. They want control period and working at home they lose that.
_________________________
'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9879228 - 08/13/20 02:39 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Simon_the_Pieman
Post Master Sr
Registered: 08/13/01
Posts: 9462
Loc: The A
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Also people making dumb decisions (moving far out).
Shopify has 250k locked in at The Well, employees can work from home, yet during the pandemic they secured another 90k sq. ft. at the same place and increasing their footprint.
CN: Working from home is temporary despite what employers say.
Good luck with that commute from Barrie tho
its just for optics man!
move out of the city. go far. save money. have a good life. hologram me in bob.
_________________________
"I'd love it if we did it... but I guess I'm a big skeptic on Canadians because so many are retarded as fuck." - 355-Si, 2020
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#9879607 - 08/14/20 04:34 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Simon_the_Pieman]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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#9933206 - 10/27/20 11:22 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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LNXGUY
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 08/06/00
Posts: 106960
Loc: Barrie, Ont,
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What's the deal with lots of properties being listed twice? In the Realtor app I see lots of places with two listings, one with a traditional WXXXXXXX number and the other with a number like 30799822. Same address, same price, same realtor.
Different realtor boards. There are some listings up here done in triplicate.
_________________________
-Bill The GN would OWN you, your children and your children's children. '09 E90 335 d
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#9933248 - 10/28/20 05:55 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: LNXGUY]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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If the listing is outside of TREB, it will start with X on the MLS listing.
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#9934176 - 10/29/20 09:20 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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f22b-dohc
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 09/09/05
Posts: 11227
Loc: canadia
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Also people making dumb decisions (moving far out).
Shopify has 250k locked in at The Well, employees can work from home, yet during the pandemic they secured another 90k sq. ft. at the same place and increasing their footprint.
CN: Working from home is temporary despite what employers say.
Good luck with that commute from Barrie tho Couldn’t agree more. Let’s face it. Businesses will want employees back in the office. They want control period and working at home they lose that.
nah.
save $ on office space
longer work hours
meeting requests at 7 am up to 6 pm
im actually busier at home than the office
working from home works and it's now proven.
probably depends on roles though. - not in my house. we're both busier
_________________________
JB weld is your friend
Chewbacca makes me yawn *Yawn*
"rolling -----on my 2.0, with the rag top down so my hair can blow..."
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#9934186 - 10/29/20 09:26 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: f22b-dohc]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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Also people making dumb decisions (moving far out).
Shopify has 250k locked in at The Well, employees can work from home, yet during the pandemic they secured another 90k sq. ft. at the same place and increasing their footprint.
CN: Working from home is temporary despite what employers say.
Good luck with that commute from Barrie tho Couldn’t agree more. Let’s face it. Businesses will want employees back in the office. They want control period and working at home they lose that. nah. save $ on office space longer work hours meeting requests at 7 am up to 6 pm im actually busier at home than the office working from home works and it's now proven. probably depends on roles though. - not in my house. we're both busier
Yeah I've been seeing that a lot now too. Meeting after meeting LOL
_________________________
'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9934212 - 10/29/20 09:37 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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That's just a form of passive aggressive micro management from shitty bosses.
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#9935106 - 10/29/20 09:20 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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That's just a form of passive aggressive micro management from shitty bosses.
And there is no shortage of shitty bosses.
_________________________
'07 997.1 GT3
'08 E90 M3
'11 E90 d
'02 Rota Grid - 195-55-16FR (RIP)
'04 Volk GTC - 245-35-19F/275-35-19R (Sold to a farm boi)
I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9937171 - 11/02/20 01:26 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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f22b-dohc
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 09/09/05
Posts: 11227
Loc: canadia
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numbers on office leases?
i'd like to see what happens/happened to the concourse downtown - my guess is most are closed.
_________________________
JB weld is your friend
Chewbacca makes me yawn *Yawn*
"rolling -----on my 2.0, with the rag top down so my hair can blow..."
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#9937318 - 11/02/20 03:44 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: f22b-dohc]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Depends which, Class A office or Class A retail? It's all over the map, numbers are still hush/unchanged, but anecdotally from people in the know it's all over the place.
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#9947098 - 11/11/20 09:41 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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JEFFOS
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/27/00
Posts: 29150
Loc: Toronto
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The office or at least the idea of working and collaborating in a space will not go away. The team building, people interaction and soft skills will still be needed and doesn’t exist to the same capacity with remote working.
_________________________
-Jeff
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#9947483 - 11/11/20 04:29 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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f22b-dohc
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 09/09/05
Posts: 11227
Loc: canadia
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^this. Plus old school management mentality still exists. Gotta watch over them lemmings!!!
this is the time to let the useless people go.
i honestly do not think i will be going back to the office - wait; i dont have one
_________________________
JB weld is your friend
Chewbacca makes me yawn *Yawn*
"rolling -----on my 2.0, with the rag top down so my hair can blow..."
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#9947606 - 11/11/20 06:49 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: SharpSpoon]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Office leasing is down 85% in the GTA.
What does this even mean? 85% of companies with offices no longer have offices? This 'stat' is meaningless without context....so let's start there so we aren't pushing headline click bait here.
The story is very different between all the different asset classes. Office and retail are under pressure, but Class A office is still in decent shape, but renewals are sketchy. Retail is getting crushed, Class B and lower office/retail also getting crushed. Industrial space is fucking CRUSHING in the GTA, can't get shit everything is getting scooped up.
Have a client, we've been aggressively looking at moving him into a larger place as his dealership is growing exponentially, can't get a damn thing in Toronto/York. We've even considered places and to apply for rezoning ourselves. There are literal micro wars going on in terms of competition for specific real estate, covid only accelerated it. Want final mile industrial fulfillment space? Another gong show.
It will come back, remote work is temporary...but at least it will force companies to create hybrid work environments where hopefully people aren't chained to cubicles 5 days a week, maybe it's just 2-3.
Like mentioned earlier, you can't build culture remotely. I suppose you can, but it's difficult to scale. If you aren't working next to the decision makers (aka the C level who are all on site) you've just wiped out any opportunity for career progression.
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#9948861 - 11/13/20 08:34 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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f22b-dohc
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 09/09/05
Posts: 11227
Loc: canadia
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[quote=SharpSpoon]
It will come back, remote work is temporary...but at least it will force companies to create hybrid work environments where hopefully people aren't chained to cubicles 5 days a week, maybe it's just 2-3.
when is your prediction of said comeback?
it's sad when i drive around and see so many places just boarded up.
and this isnt even near over yet.
_________________________
JB weld is your friend
Chewbacca makes me yawn *Yawn*
"rolling -----on my 2.0, with the rag top down so my hair can blow..."
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#9948963 - 11/13/20 09:34 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: f22b-dohc]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I have no idea for downtown, a lot of offices in the 905 are already back on rotating schedules/hybrid work plans.
Downtown core is a big unknown, some started rotating in this September, but the elevators remain the biggest issue and there is no solution. It will probably remain a ghost town for the next 6 months for sure, who knows what happens after.
Funny enough a lot of the C level/Exec teams in downtown are working out of their offices.
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#9949412 - 11/13/20 03:17 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I've heard of them, initial reaction was they were trying to copy opendoor, was wrong.
Looks like a service that provides bridge financing so you buy first, sell later, but you get charged full pop for the commission. Usually if you sell/buy with the same realtor you will get a break on the commission, not with these guys, but the 'convenience' is they provide the bridge loan...but this is something you can do on your own if you have a pulse/can breathe. Not sure who their target demo is...
What I don't like about it is that it does the typical real estate tactic of putting you in a deal first (buy first) then sell your home later. I am not a fan of this at all (I am sure many will argue with me over it, please don't - let's agree to disagree).
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#9950409 - 11/16/20 08:37 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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f22b-dohc
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 09/09/05
Posts: 11227
Loc: canadia
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Funny enough a lot of the C level/Exec teams in downtown are working out of their offices.
that's because they want to get away from their significant other
_________________________
JB weld is your friend
Chewbacca makes me yawn *Yawn*
"rolling -----on my 2.0, with the rag top down so my hair can blow..."
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#9950534 - 11/16/20 10:23 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Sounds about right, they bought at the bottom.
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#9952588 - 11/18/20 09:47 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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furball
Post Master Sr
Registered: 09/24/03
Posts: 9484
Loc: Toronto, ON
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#9952711 - 11/19/20 10:04 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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Are we simply confirming that their home appreciated in line with GTA real estate? Trying to understand if there is more to the story that I am missing.
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#9974560 - 12/29/20 08:22 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Risky Business]
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Big Tasty
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 02/10/02
Posts: 19627
Loc: Toronto
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#9974569 - 12/29/20 08:40 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I saw a listing recently where the agent parked a blue maclaren in front of an old shitty condo in Malvern as part of 'staging'. Marketing savants
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#9974768 - 12/29/20 12:10 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Big Tasty]
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Senor Eduardo_82
miataist
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
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Looks like they got a great deal on grey paint.
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#9974771 - 12/29/20 12:17 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Senor Eduardo_82
miataist
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 01/09/03
Posts: 38036
Loc: Ca�ada
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#9974786 - 12/29/20 12:36 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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Risky Business
Provides a Great Work Environment. he/him
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/17/10
Posts: 44790
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I like that house, lifestyle videos are picking up, i guess they must work  They look FANTASTIC on your IG feed when you buy the place.
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#9975016 - 12/29/20 08:30 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Senor Eduardo_82]
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A2B-Lexus
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 04/19/01
Posts: 45550
Loc: Raptors Land
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number 14. No thanks.
$1.6M, I'd want at least a 2 car garage house.
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#9975053 - 12/29/20 10:54 PM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: A2B-Lexus]
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Hatorade
pheggit
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 11/05/99
Posts: 26894
Loc: Toronto, ON
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number 14. No thanks. $1.6M, I'd want at least a 2 car garage house.
$1.6M in downtown Brampton? Wtf
_________________________
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I thought Spark was a robot from the old movie and I kind of remember seeing him telling some engineer showing the equation for a clear metal that the guy would event years later - porschetr
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#9975867 - 12/31/20 07:02 AM
Re: I started a blog (real estate)
[Re: Hatorade]
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c2k
Post Master Supreme
Registered: 05/21/00
Posts: 19291
Loc: Wiesloch-Walldorf, Germany
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number 14. No thanks. $1.6M, I'd want at least a 2 car garage house. $1.6M in downtown Brampton? Wtf
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